Following a mutiny that broke out on the morning of Tuesday, August 18, at the Soundiata Kéita camp in Kati, President Ibrahim Boubacar Kéita (IBK) and his Prime Minister and many civilians and officers were arrested.
In the evening, President Kéita announced on national television from the Kati camp the dissolution of the National Assembly and his own resignation.
For many observers, this coup was the logical consequence of the socio-political crisis that has paralyzed Mali since June this year. President Kéita’s power was regularly contested by a crowd assembled by the Movement of June 5-Rassemblement des forces patriotiques (M5-RFP), which demanded his resignation.
Through this undemocratic dismissal of President IBK’s regime, there will be several political, socio and economic consequences affecting the Malian mutinies along with CNSP from the ECOWAS and other international organisations to carry out administration.
During the last stage of the discussions with ECOWAS delegation headed by the former Nigerian president Jonathan Goodluck, with Junta and CNSP has decided military to given power to begin a civilian transition immediately and to quickly establish a government to prepare for legislative and presidential elections within 12 months.
This transition should be led by a recognised civilian, not a military, and no military structure should be above the president of the transition, and Subsequently sanctions imposed against Mali at the first extraordinary ECOWAS summit on the issue on August 20, two days after the coup, will be lifted gradually according to the implementation of these decisions.
But Mali’s ruling junta demanded a military-led transitional body to be set up for three years and agreed that ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta returns to his home and if he wants to travel for medical care it can be facilitated.
The junta has expressed that it wants to make a three-year transition to review the foundations of the Malian state.
This transition will be led by a body chaired by a soldier, who will at the same time be head of state and accordingly as for junta’s proposal the entire government will also be predominantly made up of soldiers.
Due to these juntas demands extraordinary discussions were concluded without a concreate conclusion for restoration of peace for the Malians and as well as create a huge economic and social crisis for the entire sub region and issue has been aggravated to bad to worst condition and it is repercussions will be reflects as intercommunal violence and an also be spilled over into neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso.
A crisis within a crisis
Meanwhile, after the collapse of negotiations efforts with ECOWAS, sub regional leaders vehemently condemned the military coup and closed all land and air borders with Mali until the Junta along with CNSP compromise with the decision to conduct legislative and general election during the one year transition period.
This decision does not suit Mali in any way, or the sentence will necessarily be shared with the countries that border with Mali (Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Niger and Burkina Faso), all members of ECOWAS.
It is important to remember that the continent has a strong impact on Mali in such situations. Having no outlet to the sea, to transport the products from the ports to the country, it will take the help of countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and many other countries of the said community.
In the logic where most of the manufactured products of these countries which close their borders at the request of ECOWAS, are sold in Mali, this would undoubtedly be a real problem for these production units of the sub region.
Mali, a breeding country par excellence, supplies the Ivory Coast, Senegal, and many other countries with meat. It is true that Mali will suffer in many ways especially the land transport companies and traders, but the billions that the ports earn from Malian imports will constitute a shortfall during the embargo period.
It is important for ECOWAS to review its conditions in favour of entire sub region and Mali population is concerned. In other way round most of the sub regional countries such as Guinea , Niger ,Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso head of states also has a definite fear of such a kind of style mutiny back by a powerful country due to their bad governance , corruptions and grueling of poverty in their respective states.
However, just over two weeks after the coup, Mali is still plagued by terrorism. Last week, Malian soldiers were victims of a jihadist attack on Kona in central Mali. At least four Famas (Malian Armed Forces) died on August 27.
The fight against terrorism continues, and regime change is not having too many consequences on the operational front.
With the August 18 putsch and the imprisonment of several generals, including the Minister of Defense, General Dahirou Dembélé, who is still detained in Kati, the chain of command was disrupted. But according to the French force Barkhane, operations were not affected.
It is not these soldiers with whom we are cooperating who participated in the coup, that is why the cooperation continues, that is the French stance.
When the negotiations turns to bad to worst situation Brigadier General Oumar Diarra, who was appointed Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces on Friday, July 31 was arrested along with several high-ranking army officers on August 18 in the early hours of the overthrow of President IBK.
A few days later he was released and promoted to the head of the Malian army. He now has the heavy task of oiling the war machine, of conducting victorious operations in the field.
Also, the president of the National Committee for the Salvation of the People (CNSP), Colonel Assimi Goïta, has made several appointments at the command level within the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) to run the military mechanism.
Last Monday during the United Nations Security Council meeting had decided by the member states to renew sanctions against Mali for one year, unanimously adopting a resolution that also extends the work of the group of experts created to study the issue.
In adopting resolution 2541 (2020), the Council decided to renew until 31 August 2021 the measures set out in paragraphs 1 to 7 of resolution 2374 (2017), which include the imposition of a travel ban and assets freeze on those who impede progress in the implementation of the peace and reconciliation agreement in Mali.
In the terms of the resolution, it reaffirmed that these measures shall apply to the persons and entities designated by the Sanctions Committee established pursuant to resolution 2374 (2017).
The Security Council decides that all Member States shall, for an initial period of one year following the adoption of this resolution, freeze immediately the funds and other financial assets and economic resources which are on their territories owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by the persons or entities designated by the Committee.
At last as a prediction; if the mutineers along with CNSP + M5 -RFP , other social and religious groups are act in a undiplomatic manner to the ECOWAS and other international organisations conditions for restoration of peace and harmony leading for establish of democratic system of governance, there can be a huge intervention would be happened from another powerful state of the west African region under the blessings of the France to overcome their economic, social and political issues being happening to neighboring states due to the ongoing economic embargos, closure of the land and Air boarders and escalation of jihadist movements.