
Would the world prefer current Russian autocrat President Vladimiri Putin to remain in power in his country? Or, would it like the mercenary Wagner Group together with the Russian Army’s toughest soldier, nicknamed ‘General Armageddon’, to take control of the world’s second largest nuclear and conventional military arsenal and the biggest national territory stretching from Europe to the Pacific Ocean?
When the mutinying Wagner Group’s armoured column sped through the Russian countryside last Saturday to within a mere 200 km of Moscow, that was the nearest that any mercenary force, anywhere in the world, got to a nuclear arsenal command centre.
NATO Governments are watching aghast at what their military strategy of encircling Russia has almost led their comfy continent into. Having openly espoused the overthrow of Russian President Vladimir Putin since his invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders now worry that he could be replaced by far more aggressive military and political leaders in Moscow.
Even as President Putin suppressed last weekend’s mercenary mutiny and began a purge of some hardline factions in the Russian Army, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave the Kremlin’s strongman a much-needed certificate of legitimacy and all but wished him presidential longevity.
Asked whether the aborted mercenary mutiny had weakened the Putin regime, Chancellor Scholz spoke with a forked tongue. He first told German state TV that the mutiny attempt had ‘weakened’ the boss in the Kremlin. Then asked if, at any point, he had hoped the Wagner mercenary mutiny would end Putin’s rule, he said:“it would have made no sense..” as it was unclear if “what would come after Putin would be better…”.
Such a public admission of preference for Putin by a major Western leader only serves to legitimise the Putin regime. The Ukrainian Government will now think twice before trying to take down Putin or to otherwise weaken the Kremlin regime.
Actually, the implications of the mutiny last weekend are not “unclear” at all. They quite clearly point to “..what would have come after Putin…”.
The Wagner Group
The Wagner Group, with over 25,000 personnel (most of them released convicts) counted in Ukraine alone, is one of the world’s largest and most overtly ferocious and corrupt private military companies which operates not only in Ukraine but has been operating in various other hotspots for several years. Its units have a reputation for skilled military tactics, intensive combat as well as unrestrained offensive actions that cause extensive civilian casualties and civilian infrastructure damage.
In its ferocity and commitment to achieving targets, the Wagner group stands out from among the many (literally thousands, big and small) such Private Military Companies (PMC) in the world.
The Western-based PMCs, less known for their battlefield commitment and bravery, are even more extensively deployed all over the world. While outfits like USA’s Blackwater have gained some notoriety for human rights abuses in Iraq, just like Wagner, the Western PMCs also tend to escape severe criminal prosecution.
The PMC industry is a multi-billion-dollar sector providing services ranging from direct military combat alongside the official Armed Forces of a country or an alliance of countries, to troop training and, to security escorts for civilian commercial supply services, including anti-piracy security at sea.
What is termed ‘PMC’ in the modern capitalist world is but the latest version of mercenary services that are as ancient as warfare itself, especially organised warfare after the formation of States - cities, chiefdoms and kingdoms. And since mercenaries operate entirely commercially without any protocols of loyalty to king or country, mutinies are as old as the practice of mercenary warfare.
The list of mercenary revolts is long and varied. Spartacus’ revolt against Rome is one complex episode that brings together slavery and mercenary life – and death. The most common reason for mercenary mutinies is dissatisfaction over pay and compensation. Another common reason is dissatisfaction over military strategy as laid down by their masters or contracting principals.
This was precisely the case with the Wagner Group. Indeed, more than remuneration, it was the issue of disagreement over the military strategy in Ukraine. Wagner commander “Putin’s Chef” (so named after his catering business) Yevgeny Prigozhin had, for months, been demanding more aggressive offensive actions ignoring civilian casualties. Prighozhin’s march on Moscow was not overtly against Putin himself but, rather, was meant to pressure the Army High Command to adopt a far more aggressive strategy in Ukraine.
General Sergei Surovikin, a reputed commander
That he seemingly had sympathisers inside the Army high command became clear when the Kremlin targeted one of the Army’s most decorated and reputed commanders, General Sergei Surovikin. General Surovikin has a brilliant record of versatility and military organisational accomplishments ranging from brutal combat tactics in environments as diverse as Afghanistan, Chechnya, Tajikistan, Syria and finally as overall commander briefly in Ukraine. Previously, he made a name in military logistics by setting up a chain of army bases along the Pacific and Arctic coasts.
In Syria, General Surovikin made history by crushing the Western-backed rightwing insurgency with a calculating ferocity that earned him the epithet by the insurgent opposition of ‘Butcher of Syria’. But it was his immense popularity within the Army for his success in defending Russian interests in Chechnya, Syria and Ukraine that earned him the nickname ‘General Armageddon’.
That General Sergei Surovikin held a staff position in the military region through which the mutinying Wagner units marched on Moscow gave room for speculation that he and other sympathetic hardline Army commanders actually gave the mutineers free passage.
It is clear that the West is happy that Putin survived this rather spontaneous revolt by ragtag mercenaries. It is also clear that the vast majority of the Russian Armed Forces are not as hardline as the Wagner Group or General Surovikin. Media reportage also indicates that there was little public understanding of, or sympathy for, the Wagner motives. The Russian public certainly does not see either a mercenary leader or an idiosyncratic war hero as suitable replacements for Putin.
While not much is known about the depredations of Wagner, its units in Sudan are reportedly operating a large clandestine gold mining industry there and ‘exporting’ (smuggling) the high value ore across the Continent through the Central African states for shipment from the Atlantic coast.
The main markets are in Europe and North America. Similarly, Wagner has been hired out by the Kremlin to other impoverished but mineral-rich African states like Chad, Central African Republic (CAR), Congo-Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Mali (where the UN is ending its Peacekeeping Mission) and Nigeria, to name some.
In Sudan, Wagner units are servicing both sides in the current civil war between the country’s formal military establishment and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) which had been set up by previous longtime military dictator President Omar Al Bashir as his personal armed force.
Such duality is typical mercenary behaviour. Over the past two decades, in trying to delegitimize the new strongman in Moscow even as they coaxed neighbouring States to join the US-led military alliance against Russia, NATO leaders have been beating the ‘democracy’ drum and hinting at the need to dislodge President Vladimir Putin.
But when, in the middle of the Kremlin’s military quagmire in Ukraine, Putin was confronted by a mutiny by his most powerful unit, it was obvious that the mutiny aimed to push Moscow into even greater aggression than that currently besetting Europe’s ‘Eastern Front’ (as some NATO warriors like to call Russia).
The Wagner Group, the Kremlin’s own ‘private military contractor’, was not anti-Putin. It was merely unhappy about its own treatment by the Kremlin’s defence establishment on the one hand and, on the other, wanting to play a more aggressive role in the war to enhance its own branding.
The Wagner Group may have somewhat amateurishly marched on the historic Russian city of Rostov-On-Don, but their seemingly popular reception by citizens there was more their welcome as heroes in the Ukraine war rather than any reflection of public disenchantment with the Kremlin itself. Western media – and other world news media from Al Jazeera (Qatar) to NDTV (India) to CGTN (China) – all saw for themselves that there was no wave of popular support per se for the mutiny.
No viable alternative to Putin
True, some Western media initially picked up amateur video footage of welcoming Rostovians and chose to interpret that as anti-Putin sentiment. But subsequent inputs by respected political analysts inside Russia indicate that yet, the bulk of the Russian population see no viable alternative to strongman Putin.
The whole world continues to watch the latest geopolitical fiasco on Europe’s embattled Eastern Front. Any ironic satisfaction that the rest of the world community may have at this geopolitical mayhem within the First World itself, is superseded by the severe global economic and social repercussions of the Ukraine War which recently entered the 500th day.