As the curtain falls over the constitutional crisis and the political drama that was staged over the past seven weeks, the focus now shifts to the ‘new’ government that assumed office on Thursday, with the swearing-in of the Cabinet before President Maithripala Sirisena.
However, there are tell-tale signs that the road ahead for the next one year or so until presidential elections are called, will be a bumpy ride for the new government with warnings of possible collisions emerging already.
The delay in swearing in the Cabinet of Ministers suggested that there are some differences of opinion between President Maithripala Sirisena and the United National Front (UNF) with regard to the allocation of portfolios.
Speculation to this effect only grew as the week unfolded and evidence of discontent emerged.
The first of these came during the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. President Sirisena took the opportunity to give a tongue-lashing to the newly appointed Premier and the UNF.
He also defended his actions in dismissing the previous government.
Leading UNF stalwarts listened through the forty-minute tirade in stony silence, exchanging bemused glances with only Sajith Premadasa venturing a reply which was conciliatory in tone.
The second indication that it is not ‘all’s well, that ends well’ in the Government came during the swearing in of the Cabinet.
Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka was denied a portfolio, presumably at the insistence of the President.
Also, denied ministries were those who crossed over from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Vijith Wjeyamuni Soysa, Lakshman Seneviratne and Indika Bandaranayake.
It will be recalled that Field Marshal Fonseka was quite vocal in his criticism of the President during the period when the constitutional crisis prevailed and, as is his style, didn’t mince his words when voicing his opinions.
There were reports that attempts by the UNF to secure a portfolio for Range Bandara were also not successful.
It was Bandara who publicised the telephone call from S. B. Dissanayake which went viral on social media, which was a significant deterrent for other UNF parliamentarians aspiring to cross-over to the Rajapaksa led government.
A third hint of trouble in high places is the absence of a separate Ministry for Law and Order, a portfolio previously held by the UNF.
Reports suggest that the UNF lobbied hard to maintain the status quo.
This Ministry, which oversees the Police Department and is therefore crucial in conducting anti-corruption investigations, was scrapped and the Police is now likely to come under the purview of the Ministry of Defence, held by the President.
There were also reports that the President intended to retain the media portfolio, which would have given him control over key print and electronic state media institutions. However, the UNF appears to have negotiated that hurdle successfully and Mangala Samaraweera was re-appointed Media Minister.
The Cabinet was pruned to thirty ministers inclusive of the President and the Prime Minister and this meant that portfolios previously held by Ministers representing the United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) were distributed among UNF members.
As a result, some of them have several portfolios. For example, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe is also Minister of National Polices and Economic Affairs, Resettlement and Rehabilitation, Northern Province Development, Vocational Training and Skills Development and Youth Affairs.
One wonders whether he would be able to recall his full title!
What all this points to is that, in the last year of his first term in office, President Sirisena is trying his best to assert himself and stamp his authority on governing the country, after his ill-fated attempts to dislodge the UNF-led coalition Government and replace it with one headed by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
This means, the UNF now needs to tread cautiously and efficiently, two elements that were missing in its style of government over the past three and a half years.
By necessity, both President Sirisena as well as the UNP and by all means Rajapaksa and his Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) will be having an eye on the next presidential elections, which are due by January 2020.
The ‘new’ government will have to work hard to sustain the momentum it generated during the seven weeks of constitutional unrest.
It did gain a lot of goodwill from the electorate during that period which saw some elements in the Rajapaksa camp resort to their tried and tested strong arm tactics, which alienated them from the public even more, despite Rajapaksa’s charismatic presence in their camp.
On the other hand, question marks hang over the alliance forged between President Sirisena and the Rajapaksa group.
Rajapaksa was reportedly extremely disappointed at being let down by S. B. Dissanayake, who had promised a parliamentary majority that would have secured the Premiership- but that did not eventuate, and the rest is now history.
How this has affected the newfound and still fragile alliance between the two groups remains to be seen.
A key factor in this is who the next presidential candidate would be from the UPFA.
If President Sirisena nurses ambitions of contesting, it would only be natural for him to expect Rajapaksa’s support, after what transpired in the past seven weeks.
Rajapaksa himself is unable to contest because of the two-term limit imposed by the 19th Amendment to the Constitution and brother Gotabaya, the next most likely choice for candidacy, is hamstrung by his United States citizenship as well as the many allegations pending against him in local courts.
In that sense, having President Sirisena run again would serve the interests of both camps in the UPFA.
All in all, these factors will conspire to make the next twelve months an extremely interesting period in Sri Lankan politics. However, focus should not be on the self-serving interests of different political parties and their leaders but on the long-suffering masses in the country.
They have endured much hate, hypocrisy and hubris in the past seven weeks.
Now, they deserve better. It is up to the ‘new’ government to deliver- and for the new opposition to keep them on their toes.