Speculations that the drought conditions will prevail, caused apprehension in many parts of the country, at the start of the new year. With drinking water available only for two months in almost all parts of the country, rituals were conducted for rainfall. The Forces and state institutions, briefed on disaster aversion, took precautions and were ready to face an emergency situation as advised by the President.
However, last Friday recorded a rainfall in the northern and eastern parts of the country. But, the question remains whether it will be sufficient.
The Sunday Observer looked into the prevailing conditions and its effects, in different aspects of life, island wide.
February being the hottest and driest month of the year, throughout the country, it was imperative that we get rain at least during the months in which rains are expected.
“Downpour during November to December is usually expected. But, last yearrainfall was less, thus resulting in a drastic reduction in the reservoirs. January and February, mostly the latter, is considered to be dry months. Historically, we have depended on the December rains to compensate for February; however, this year, rain has been scarce and thus plunged the country into a drought,” said Dr. Ranjith Punyawardane, senior climatologist, Department of Agriculture.
When asked, how much of rainfall would be needed to bring the situation to normalcy, he said; “It’s not practical to say how much of rain we need in order to come out of this drought. Factors such as area, soil, density, vegetation and animals are some factors that need to be considered. However,overall, if we receive a rainfall of about 30 mm per day for a week, continuously, the situation may be restored. February is generally a dry month throughout the island. This is the reason why we are not able to move out of the ‘danger’ zone.”
Nevertheless, as predicted by the Department of Meteorology, rainfall was reported on Friday.
Damages to agriculture
Crops have been damaged in some areas while in other areas, cultivation has not been carried out at all. According to the Department of Agriculture cultivation has reduced by fifty percent.
“Usually, during the ‘maha’ (major growing) season we manage to cultivate closer to eight hundred thousand hectares, however, this time we have been able to cultivate only four hundred and eight thousand hectares, of which, twenty five thousand hectares are already damaged.” he said.
According to Met department forecasts, the expectation is that rain will continue for about 2 days. But, Punyawardena says, it will not be sufficient.
“Even if it rains for two days it won’t help us in completely trouncing the drought conditions. It is only a relief, and wouldn’t be sufficient to even fill up the reservoirs” he said.
Inter-monsoon rains are expected during March-April, known as convectional rains. During this period the sun is directly over Sri Lanka, and due to the convection, rain is created. So far, there is no reason to avert this rainfall and we expect it in its usual strength. Of the two months, rainfall is drastic during April.
Although the intervening monsoon looks promising, according to Punyawardena it won’t be remedial.
“The issue is, the rainfall in the dry zone is only about 150-200 mm for both months, but the evaporation loss per day is 5mm. So it is obvious that this rainfall in itself is not sufficient for cultivation. And, we need to have excess water in the reservoirs. This is a major factor for the ‘Yala’ season to fail. When the Maha season comes to an end we go into the Yala season, usually, with a water storage of 40 to 50 percent in the tanks. However, this is not so at present,” he said.
“The main areas affected by the drought are Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Mannar, Vauniya, Batticaloa, Amaparai, Puttlam, and all areas in the dry zone and the intermediate zone.
“If we consider the cultivation in the wet zone, the drought has been a blessing in disguise. We were able to cultivate a higher percentage of paddy in the wet zone”, he said.
According to the Director,Tea Research Institute, Dr. Sarath, Abeysinghe, the varying extreme temperatures have damaged tea plantations vehemently.
“The effect of the current drought depends on the area. If you take the
upcountry, daytime temperatures are quite high. For example, in the Nuwara Eliya area temperature can rise to about 27 degrees during daytime.
But,at night it varies between 3 to 4 degrees, so much so that you even find ground frost. So, the extreme temperature conditions cause frost damage and then the effects of the drought kicks in. Water retention too is very low.”
“Consequently, this has lead to a reduction in production. For example, tea production has reduced by forty or fifty percent compared to last year.
Usually, January to March is considered to be a dry period. However, since the months of November and December 2016 were dry spells, with less or no rains, the water retention has been very low.
“In the low country plantations, the issues are drought and mist. The early morning mist spreads the Blister Blight disease which kills the tea trees.” Dr. Abeysinghe said.
He said, “as mitigating methods, from the time the drought was predicted, discussions have been held on how to manage or mitigate the effects of the drought. The Tea Research Institute (TRI) had issued recommendations on how to reduce the damage, as it is difficult to completely avert such damage. The recommendations were, to use sprays of Potassium Sulfide and Potassium
Fluoride. Other measures recommended were to conserve soil moisture. Water in the soil can be conserved by using such measures, and new techniques were introduced by the TRI.
“Another method was to plant shade trees. This plays a major role in
maintaining or reducing the temperature on the tea plant. When new tea trees are planted we advise planters to use our drought resistant tea trees”, Dr Abeysinghe said.