North Korea may have thumbed her nose at the Western powers with two more missile tests last week, but the leader of the Western power bloc, US President Donald Trump was too pre-occupied with defending his very office of President to even tweet! Indeed, US media commentators have noted that this first US President who publicly expresses himself via late night ad hoc tweets did not tweet on anything at all for 46 hours toward the end of last week.
Global public attention, however, was focused elsewhere – on UK Premier Theresa May’s failed elections gamble and, on Saudi Arabia’s sudden hostile moves against Qatar that threaten an already unstable Persian Gulf. The guerrilla attack in the heart of Tehran, by suspected south Iranian Sunni Arab insurgents also drew attention last week as the first armed incident in what has been West Asia’s most stable country since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK - North Korea) last week test launched two short range anti-ship missiles only days after the UN Security Council approved an US-initiated resolution for further sanctions for previous missile tests. The punitive resolution itself, as expected, had little teeth – merely a travel and transactions ban on more senior North Korean officials and agencies identified as linked to the missile programme. Having already, at Western instigation, imposed a sweeping and crippling sanctions regime on that stubbornly maverick dictatorship, the UN is now reduced to simply adding more North Koreans and North Korean institutions to the list of sanctioned entities.
Testing
The new sanctions were imposed as punishment for previous missile tests last month. In what was the seventeenth missile test for 2017, that embattled country tested some long range rockets which it claimed were capable of carrying nuclear warheads and were semi-long range missiles capable of reaching parts of the USA.
It must be noted, however, that Pyongyang continues to build its military capability in the face of a sustained military build-up just across its border in South Korea and at sea by world super power and Korean War antagonist, the United States. The testing of anti-ship missiles last week could be seen as a North Korean response to the powerful US naval battle group opposite its coast and the continuous military and naval exercises that are virtually invasion practises by joint US and South Korean forces.
But US President Trump was pre-occupied last week with the emerging details of what is being increasingly described by mainstream US news media as the ‘Russia-gate’ probe. After the entire set of US intelligence agencies detected Russian covert interventions during the hotly fought presidential elections last year, oversight committees of both the US Senate and House of Representatives launched multiple investigations into the Russian cyber-attacks, data thefts and media misinformation.
These Congressional probes have now mushroomed into the additional exposure of what, sensationally, hints at a parallel conspiracy of collusion with the Russians by the election campaign staff of new American President Trump himself! Virtually throughout his few months as President, the unashamedly – and often stupidly – boastful Trump has had to deal with successive revelations of his staffers un-acknowledged dealings with the Russians.
Even more damming has been the President’s own – now famous – unthinking admissions of his own role in intervening in the work of the intelligence and counter-espionage agencies that are also continuing their probes into the Russian interference. Along with several key contradictory statements, the President’s wilful actions in relation to this burgeoning political scandal, including his sudden and poorly justified sacking of Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey, has only served to undermine his credibility and fuel speculation that perhaps he, himself, knew of his staffers’ dealings with the Russians at the very time that hostile power was busy interfering in the presidential elections.
Interference
The US intelligence and counter-espionage agencies (led by the FBI) had begun warning of the Russian interference even before the elections were over. Indeed, they had formally testified before Congress that they Russian interference was designed to influence the favour of a Donald Trump victory. The fact that during the elections campaign Trump had persistently made public pronouncements favouring Russia and raising Russian President Vladimir Putin has only served to fan suspicion that there was good reason for Moscow to favour him over rival and, known Russian critic, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
The probes into the dealings by various Trump campaign staffers with the Russian first shocked America when newly appointed Attorney General Jeff Sessions (a former state prosecutor and US Senator) was found implicated with the Russians forcing him to recuse himself from any say (as Attorney General) over this investigation. Attorney General Sessions is also suspected of having lied to a Congressional Committee about some of his meetings with the Russians. At the same time the newly appointed National Security Adviser General (Rtd.) Michael Flynn was forced to resign after being caught lying about his own dealings with the Russians.
The Russia probe continues, now, with an all-powerful Special Prosecutor at the helm. Technically the probe is one of counter-espionage against actions by foreign agents and also against their local collaborators. The fact the Russians’ local collaborators were top associates of Donald Trump during his election and that some took up senior positions close to the US Presidency itself only makes the probe more dramatic and historic.
The seeming attempts by Trump and his associates to halt or dilute the Russia probe became exposed mainly with the alleged attempt by Trump himself to halt the subsidiary probe in to former National Security Adviser Flynn’s dealings with the Russians.
Sacked FBI Director James Comey last Thursday testified before the Senate Committee on Intelligence and categorically charged that Trump had brought pressure on him to halt the Russia probe as well as the subsidiary Flynn probe. After this bombshell, Trump first allowed his private attorney to inform the news media that the Comey testimony vindicated Trump’s claim that he had no link with the Russians. His lawyer’s statement also denied Trump had pressured Comey to halt either the Russia investigation or the subsidiary probe into Flynn.
This whole affair hinges on the credibility of the US President versus that of the sacked head of the FBI. A decisive element is the question as to why the President had to ask all other officials (including the most relevant Attorney General who oversees the FBI) to leave the room to enable him to talk with then FBI Comey. No doubt the probing Committees as well as the Special Prosecutor will verify with those officers – including Vice President Mike Pence – whether they were at such a meeting and whether they were asked to leave the President and Comey alone.
Many senior journalists and commentators in the US are already comparing this huge scandal with the the famous Watergate investigation that exposed the political and criminal perfidy of a far more accomplished American leader, President Richard Nixon.
Even as the US political establishment ties itself into knots over this presidential scandal, the world, especially Europe was distracted by last Tuesday’s snap parliamentary elections in the UK in which the ruling Conservative Party failed miserably in its goal to enhance an already strong parliamentary majority. Rather, Prime Minister Theresa May now has only a working majority in the House of Commons that has compelled her to negotiate an alliance with several small parties to stay in power.
The European Union watches anxiously to see how strong and unified London will be when it comes to negotiating the UK’s separation from the Union. The negotiations will be tortuous but everyone, especially Europe as well as the rest of the world, wants it to be as short as possible to enable economic stability in the long term.
Meanwhile, much world attention is focussed on the Persian Gulf where in recent weeks Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been accusing the independent kingdom of Qatar of supporting ‘terrorism’. The initial uproar was provoked by e-mail theft and public dissemination on the web that seemingly exposed Qatari government dealings with some of the extreme radical Islamist guerrilla groups operating against the Syrian government.
Solidarity
Riyadh has long been known to be unhappy with Qatar’s independent foreign policy that ignored Saudi regional interests. Unlike the UAE, Qatar – which hosts the largest US military bases in entire West Asia – has not toed the Saudi line in international policy. Rather than get closer to Israel as the Saudis have done (in betrayal of longstanding solidarity with the dispossessed Palestinians), Qatar has maintained links with the Palestinians and has recognised the role of the Hamas movement that has been elected to administer the Gaza Strip. At the same time Qatar also supported the Muslim Brotherhood which was elected to power in Egypt replacing the military dictatorship. The Saudis were also unhappy with Qatar’s friendship with Shia Iran. While the Qatar monarchy is Sunni, a significant part of the Qatari population is Shia.
Last week the Saudis and the UAE suddenly closed down all links with Qatar and imposed severe economic sanctions. With economic linkages and food supplies blocked by this coalition, and rumours of a possible Saudi military intervention for regime change in Doha, the millions of migrant workers in Qatar as well as the Gulf region now live in tension over their future.
However, except for Egypt and little Maldives, the anti-Qatar coalition is small with most of the world keen to avoid any conflict and seeking a return to stability in a region yet critical for an oil-dependent world economy.