The stage is now set for the drama, while rehearsals are going on full steam ahead: the real show will be performed on Wednesday when the motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe will be taken up in Parliament for debate and then put to a vote.
It is not every day that Parliament in our country debates a motion of no confidence against its Prime Minister. This is only the third motion of no confidence submitted against a Premier in seventy years of post-independence parliamentary history.
Both Bandaranaikes, S.W.R.D. and Sirima, were subjected to votes of no confidence in 1957 and 1975, respectively, and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe can at least count on history to be on his side: both votes were comfortably defeated.
This motion of no confidence has at its core the findings of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry into the Central Bank bond sale. The Prime Minister has been targeted as the then Governor Arjuna Mahendran was his choice for the job. To be fair, however, the Commission has found that Wickremesinghe only erred in judgment in trusting Mahendran; he has not been found guilty of any wrongdoing.
It is not entirely clear whose brainchild the motion of no-confidence is, although it certainly originated from the Joint Opposition (JO) faction of the United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) in the wake of its victory at the local government elections.
It is well known that there were sections of the JO which were opposed to the idea - and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa was also initially in this camp. Those sentiments then changed. Buoyed by comments from some parliamentarians from the Prime Minister’s United National Party (UNP), the JO began to believe they could win the vote and oust Premier Wickremesinghe.
If the JO has done its arithmetic- and it should have - it must know that, for the motion to succeed, at least a dozen UNPers should support it, as should the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). If the JVP does not extend its support, then more UNPers need to endorse it. That is being quite optimistic.
Meanwhile, the dress rehearsals have begun in earnest. We heard S. B. Dissanayake, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party’s (SLFP) equivalent of the UNP’s Rajitha Senaratne with a penchant for the sensational, telling us that there is no reason why the SLFP should oppose the motion of no-confidence.
There is a pithy Sinhala saying which suggests that fish perish because of their mouth and Dissanayake should know better, having once spent some years in jail for calling a judgment of the Supreme Court a balu theenduwa or a dog’s verdict; but then, he obviously hasn’t learnt his lesson because he gets away by supporting whoever is in power, be it Chandrika Kumaratunga, Ranil Wickremesinghe, Mahinda Rajapaksa or Maithripala Sirisena, having served in governments with all of them!
Echoing Dissanayake’s sentiments this week was Susil Premajayantha who says, SLFPers have “no option but to support the no confidence motion”. Premajayantha is another of those political turncoats who switched allegiance to President Sirisena after campaigning for Rajapaksa at the last presidential election and worked actively to promote the Rajapaksa camp from within the government.
Premajayantha was also the chief kapuwa or marriage broker between the Sirisena and Rajapaksa factions of the SLFP- and there is nothing wrong in that. However, how he tried to bring the two warring groups together was by driving a wedge between President Sirisena and the UNP. Next week will tell whether he has succeeded or whether it will be a case of kapuwa kapothi!
On the other side, we had Vajira Abeywardena telling us that there was no provision in the Constitution to bring a motion of no-confidence against the Prime Minister. If such a motion is passed, it would be construed as being against the entire government. Therefore, if it succeeds, the entire government, including the President - who is the Head of Government - should resign and it is the Speaker who will then head the government, Abeywardena argued.
That is an interesting theory and one over which constitutional pundits will no doubt split hairs. But it begs the question, what next?
If the UNP averts the motion of no-confidence - as it is likely to - the government will carry on as usual. However, if SLFPers who are currently cohabiting with the UNP in the so-called National Government vote for the motion, can they continue to be in the same government with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe as its head?
Will they have the backbone to resign and kiss goodbye to the perks and privileges they enjoy as Ministers? Or, will they remain in government, sniping at the UNP and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe at every turn, effectively sabotaging the entire government, themselves included?
The other scenario, quite hypothetical as it is, also merits investigation. What would happen if the motion is passed with the blessings of some UNPers? Will these UNPers then vote for a new Prime Minister from the SLFP? That would be extremely unlikely. So, where would that leave the JO and the SLFP: back in square one!
Ironically, this motion of no confidence could be a blessing in disguise for the UNP. At the last meeting of its highest decision making body, the Working Committee, it resolved to enact major reforms without further delay. These are due to take place within a very short time frame, in the week between when the motion of no confidence is debated and the Sinhala and Tamil New Year.
If indeed major changes are effected in the party’s leadership and the UNP is able to get its acts together in preparation for the next national elections in 2020, there is no doubt that it is the motion of no confidence that acted as the catalyst for these changes.
The week that will be will see some high drama both, within the chamber of Parliament and also in the corridors of power. Whatever the outcome, it is now high time that politicians of all hues stop their petty shenanigans and get around to the task of running the country.