After consecutive drought conditions destroyed rice crops in the country’s agricultural heartlands, driving rice prices up and putting a major strain on the national economy, climate experts and farmers are finally expecting a good yield this Yala season, with rains forecast to fall on schedule this monsoon. However, experts warn that with changing weather and climate patterns, the focus for agricultural communities and policy-makers should be better water-management systems and crop innovation that will stop placing farmers and their livelihoods at the mercy of the weather gods every year
After changes in rainfall patterns wrecked rice crops in the country in recent years, with severe drought conditions experienced in 2016-2017 in particular, climate experts are finally hopeful that the forthcoming Yala paddy season will show good yields.
Farming communities, beaten down by consecutive droughts and flood situations, remain skeptical and unwilling to predict how good the next paddy harvest will be until the skies finally open and the rain comes down in the sowing season.
Principal Scientist - Climatology at the Department of Agriculture, Dr. Punyawardana says, there are positive expectations for the 2018 Yala season. “The first inter monsoons are due in a week’s time and the South West monsoon is expected from May to September. The atmospheric conditions indicate a conducive situation for normal rainfall rhythm,” he says.
According to Dr Punyawardane, by the end of this year, paddy yields are expected to return to normal.
He says, although major rice growing districts including, Vavuniya, Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ampara, and part of Anuradapura and part of Polonnaruwa indicate water storage in tanks below 30 per cent, Hambantota, Moneragala and Badulla districts were having an adequate water supply. “Also, with the arrival of the South West monsoon, Mahaweli H and C zones are expecting adequate rainfall. Therefore, we expect a good harvest this season,” he says.
Paddy cultivation is one of the oldest economic activities in Sri Lanka, which, over the centuries, has been tightly woven into the socio-cultural fabric of the island.
Once referred to as the Granary of the East, rice farming in the country can be traced back as far as the Anuradhapura era. Highly dependent on rainfall, ancient rulers ensured cultivation was backed by an intricate irrigation system, made of tanks and canals to store and distribute water for rice farming.
Today, although the importance attributed to agriculture has diminished, rice still remains the most important crop in the country. On average, 560,000ha are cultivated during Maha and 310,000 ha during Yala, with the average annual total reaching about 870,000ha. Further, 1.8 million farming families engage in paddy cultivation and produce 2.7 million tons of rough rice annually or about 95 percent of the domestic requirement.
However, in the recent years change in rainfall patterns affected paddy cultivation adversely, mainly due to rainfall not coinciding with the Yala and Maha seasons.
Skeptical
National Organizer , All Ceylon Farmers’ Federation, Namal Karunarathna remains skeptical of the harvest of the coming season. He says, it is difficult to predict the Yala harvest, since it has not started yet. “If there is adequate and timely rainfall to fill the tanks, Yala will be good. However, Yala should begin now, with the conclusion of harvesting Maha. It is the time to sow seeds, but due to delay in rain, in most areas it has not started yet,” he says.
Dr. Punyawardana says, the normal rainfall pattern and rainfall rhythm was last observed in 2012, where a good yield was recorded.
“From 2012/2013 until now, the Maha season rainfall pattern was disrupted, with either drought or flooding. The worst drought was in 2016, which wrecked the agricultural sector, with a negative growth recorded for the first time in recent history,” he says.
However, Punyawardana says, 2017/2018 Maha crop was not so bad considered on a year on year comparison. According to the Department of Agriculture, approximately 550,000ha of paddy was cultivated this season compared to an average of 820,000 ha cultivated under normal weather conditions.
“This crop is adequate to feed the country for another eight months. Therefore, we are in a better shape than previous years, after experiencing low crop yield in several consecutive seasons,” he says.
Karunarathna says, only 85 percent of the total land area was cultivated this Maha season and yield reduced slightly due to fertilizer not being received on time. Also, he adds, some areas faced small issues in cultivation, due to less rainfall.
Research done at the Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND) shows that food security in Sri Lanka will decline due to falling paddy yields. According to UN agencies, nearly 225,000 households face food insecurity in Sri Lanka. As a result of floods in May 2017 and ongoing drought impacting the primary and secondary harvests of 2017, rice production for 2017 was expected to be the lowest paddy production in the last 10 years, according to the Department of Agriculture. Karunarathna says, the reasons for the diminishing levels of crop yield experienced in the recent past attributes to the absence of a proper water management plan in the country.
Priority
“We studied the rainfall pattern during the past 10 years and found that although there was a change in time scale and pattern of rain, we have received rainfall throughout the year, which is adequate for agriculture. However, due to the current water management plan, first place in utilizing water sources is given to the generation of hydro electricity, whereas agriculture receives only fourth place. This should be changed and agriculture should be made number one priority, since there are alternatives for power generation”, he says.
Rain patterns have now changed, and water management plans should change accordingly, he insists. Changing the course of the Kalu, Kelani and Walawe rivers, with a greater water volume than Mahaweli, towards Rajarata would help fill the empty tanks in that region and reduce flooding in westernmost parts of the country, he says.
Remedial measures
“Also, the authorities should open sluice gates of reservoirs when the Department of Meteorology predicts rainfall, to ensure the tanks in Rajarata are filled. Once rainfall is received, the reservoirs will fill. But sluice gates are not opened because water from reservoirs are needed to work turbines,” he says.
Early warning is one way to counter the reduction in harvests due to change in weather patterns. Prof. Munasinghe says, early warning through better short term weather prediction and long term climate change projection regarding rainfall, temperature, storms and floods, and sea level rise will be very useful to reduce impact risks and damages, and also improve farmer adaptation to these effects. “The Government should take early action to improve such services,” he says.
Numerous agricultural decisions could be made, giving forecasts targeted to different time scale such as, three day forecast, 10 day forecast, monthly forecast and seasonal forecast, says Deputy Director Research and Climate Change at the Meteorology Department Dr. Shiromani Jayawardena.
She says, reliable predictions for this advance period would help plan for key, high impact events such as, the timing of the onset of the rainy season for planting decisions, cessation of rainy season for harvesting decisions, providing early warning for disaster risk management and potential timing of dry spells or damaging heavy rain for crop management and protection decisions in agriculture.
Experts say, there is a need to move from water intensive agricultural practices to water saving practices, to better strengthen agriculture against change of climate patterns. “In the past, the relative abundance of water has encouraged traditional dependence on water intensive crops and agricultural practices,” Prof. Munasinghe says.
Now, Sri Lanka needs to quickly develop crops, crop combinations, agricultural technologies and practices that are water saving. Encouraging conventional farmers to adopt such new methods will also be a serious socio-cultural challenge, he adds.
Therefore, more effort must be put into farmer education, especially, focusing on younger, more literate farmers using newer communication techniques and methods, including the social media, he says.