With talk in the air of power cuts up to eight hours or more by January 2023, Sri Lanka is facing a serious issue in terms of electricity generation. Right now, we rely on three major sources for our power supply – hydropower, thermal (fossil fuel) and coal. Sri Lanka is one of the pioneers of hydropower in the whole world, with Sri Lankan engineer and politician D.J. Wimalasurendra often credited as the “father of hydropower.” Later, a hydropower plan was named after him. The gigantic Mahaweli Scheme has several hydropower plants such as Victoria and Randenigala.
Major investments
Hydropower has several drawbacks – it is dependent on heavy rains, which do not always materialize. Hydropower generation is reduced to almost zero during long periods of drought, as witnessed in 1996, when there were hours-long power cuts (Sri Lanka did not have coal power back then). Now we rely heavily on the 900 MW coal power plant in Norochcholai, but this plant is beset by problems such as frequent breakdowns. The procurement of adequate coal supplies has also become a problem in the light of the foreign exchange crisis. However, Norochcholai is in fact one of the few major investments that Sri Lanka has made in the power sector in the past two or three decades.
Thermal power is the other major plank in Sri Lanka’s power generation arsenal. Kelanitissa, on the border of Colombo City, is an example for a thermal power plant. In the backdrop of the regular absence of hydropower and recurring problems at Norochcholai, the Ceylon
Non-renewable resources
Electricity Board (CEB) and its wholly-owned subsidiary the Lanka Electricity Company (LECO) have been depending heavily on thermal power. Again, Sri Lanka’s economic and foreign exchange crises have adversely affected this sector as well, as the country lacks a sufficient quantum of Dollars at present to import fossil fuels regularly. It must be noted that both coal and fossil fuel are finite (non-renewable) resources that could possibly run out within the next 300 and 100 years respectively.
Over the years, experts and academics in the power sector have pointed out the need to diversify the country’s power sources, but the question that needs to be asked is whether those in power heeded this call. The previous administration has signed an agreement for a LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) power plant with the US-based New Fortress Energy (NFE) Company for 310 MW plant. While LNG is indeed a much cleaner fuel, it is also a finite resource with a considerable environmental footprint. Nuclear power, even of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) variety, is unlikely to be an option in Sri Lanka in the foreseeable future, given the huge financial resources needed (around US$ 3 billion for a 500 MW plant) and the attendant risks.
Best alternative
Paradoxically, there has been remarkably little investment in Sri Lanka in two sources of power that are found here in abundance, being an equatorial country – the Sun and the wind. Sri Lanka practically gets these two renewable sources of power throughout the year. And apart from the initial investment, it is all free. Yet, there has been fierce resistance to these projects from within the CEB, the fuel lobby and bureaucracy, with the result that we are looking at another long spell of power cuts by next year, on top of the two-hour power cuts we are experiencing now. There are other renewable sources of power including ocean wave and geothermal energy, but these may not be viable for Sri Lanka given the present financial constraints.
In this article, we will be looking at solar power, which has become way more affordable than wind power over the years. Light from the Sun can power our entire world several times over, though solar technology has not reached that level yet. The only other option that can beat the Sun at its own game is nuclear fusion power (which is exactly the process that powers the Sun), though it is unlikely to be commercially successful at least until 2060. In the meantime, solar power is the best hope for an energy-starved world that is also eager to meet the Paris Climate Accord targets to keep greenhouse gases and world temperatures down. Here, solar power wins hands down as it is renewable, non-polluting and almost free, sans the initial investment for solar panels, inverters and batteries.
Faster growth
In fact, in just three years’ time, the world will get more power from wind and solar sources than from coal, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA predicts in a report that, over the next five years, the world will increase its renewable power capacity by 75 per cent — an amount equivalent to the entire power capacity of China today. By 2027, the biggest source of the world’s electricity will be solar power, followed by coal, natural gas and wind, the group said.
“Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase of even faster growth,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a recent statement. “The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next five years as it did in the previous 20 years,” Birol noted. Sri Lanka must get on board the solar (and wind) power boom right away, in line with the plans mooted by the Ministry of Power and Energy to procure 70 per cent of the electricity capacity from renewables by 2030, which is just seven years away. This is an ambitious, yet altogether achievable, target if we have the will, both political and financial.
The good news is that the cost of solar panels has dropped drastically over the past few years, though whether this factor is reflected in the prices quoted for rooftop solar projects here is a moot point. Globally, the price of solar energy has dropped dramatically over the past two decades. Between 1998 and 2009, the cost of installed solar dropped by 30 percent. And since 2010, the cost of installed solar has dropped a further 70 percent-80 per cent. Considering that solar power generation began around 1960, this is a noteworthy achievement. Largely due to these cost reductions, by 2019, renewables accounted for 72 per cent of all new capacity additions worldwide and solar generation rose by 23 per cent globally in 2021.
Those plunges were driven in large part by higher module efficiency and lower module cost. The price of different module technologies — including crystalline-silicone, cadmium telluride, and copper indium gallium diselenide — are forecast to lessen in the coming years with more efficient manufacturing. These technologies are also likely to increase the energy efficiency of the solar panels (how much of the sun’s energy is converted to actual electricity).
Role of private companies
Thus there has never been a better time to invest in solar, both from a mega-project and rooftop system perspective. Sri Lanka recently announced tenders for 30 MW and 100 MW solar parks and several companies have come forward to build several other solar projects. Sri Lanka also plans to use a US$ 100 million Indian Credit Line for installing solar panels in places of worship and Government institutions. The Government should encourage private companies and factories too to install solar power systems.
But the uptake in terms of private residences is still not very encouraging, mainly because of the cost. A good solar system that can power a few appliances and a few lights during a power cut can still cost somewhere around Rs.1.5 million to Rs.2 million, sans battery backup for night-time use.
However, some solar installers have sweetened this deal by throwing in battery backup systems (which might cost up to Rs.1 million) free of charge. Although it is true that solar users can sell excess units of electricity to the CEB, most would-be users are worried about the long Return On Investment (ROI) period, which might be up to 15 years.
However, this could come down to about five years if the electricity bills are increased drastically as proposed recently.
Suggestions
In any case, there should be a bigger subsidy package to encourage more homeowners to sign up to solar power. Both the Government and solar installers must widen the availability of low-power solar solutions (that can perhaps power one or two bulbs so the children can study during a power cut) to Middle Class homeowners who might not be able to splash a sum like Rs. 1.5 million at once.
The Sustainable Energy Authority (SEA) must be given more powers to do its work effectively with regard to both solar and wind power. This should be part of a wider National Energy Policy (NEP) that takes future energy demand projects into account. The NEP should not be changed whenever a new Government comes to power, apart from tweaks and adjustments that may be needed. Moreover, all elements within and outside the CEB that impede the Government’s solar drive must be identified and shown the door. Otherwise, we will never succeed in realizing the true potential of solar power in this sunny island.