In recent times, at least one political alliance (PPP) has put forward their domestic agenda proposals for public comment. Yet, so far, no political party or alliance has offered any proposals in the Foreign Policy domain.
However, articles from academics have emerged in the press indicating a general consensus in praise of the early commitment to non- alignment , which called inter-alia, for equidistance from all major powers and won rare support across political party lines in Sri Lanka. Criticism has been heaped on the JR Jayewardene era for initiating a pro- Western slant leading to the antagonism with India in the 1980s and its involvement in the armed conflict in Sri Lanka.
This view is not wholly correct because upon taking office in 1977, President Jayewardene enjoyed close relations with Indian Prime Minister Morarji Desai who held that the Sri Lanka Tamils were “Ceylonians”, hence, it was an “internal“ matter.
Indian- Sri Lankan relations
The adversity in Indian- Sri Lankan relations came with Indira Gandhi’s election in January 1980 and had much to do with her own personality, world view and Centre-State political compulsions involving Tamil Nadu. By the end of the Cold War, India was already moving closer to the US and this may be why the Annexures to the 1987 India-Sri Lanka Agreement were to be kept secret,because there were references therein (VOA, Trinco, oil tanks) which could be construed as ‘unfriendly’ to the US . Consequent to India’s economic liberalisation, US-India relations have blossomed with positive impact on India- Sri Lanka relations based on a common outlook towards economic, trade and investment cooperation, in harmony with the West.
Today, there is no viable alternative to the liberalised market economy which even Communist governments have adopted to suit their needs. So, should we not look on the J.R.Jayewardene legacy as being ahead of its time where the Open Economy was concerned? Sri Lanka also provided lessons for the international development banks when the process of economic liberalisation led to gaping inequalities which required the setting up of social safety nets and poverty alleviation measures. It would take India another decade after Sri Lanka to liberalise its economy under the coalition government headed by V.P. Singh in 1989 which also led to a “180 degree turn” on its Sri Lanka policy, reverting to the earlier position of non-intervention.
In March 1990 Foreign Minister Gujral stated that “India would never again send its forces to a neighbouring country.” International relations theory (Charles Hermann etc) suggests that a major restructuring or transforming of the economic system could be a source of Foreign Policy change which is borne out by the liberalisation experience in both Sri Lanka and India.
The main dilemmas today are security related - how does Sri Lanka manoeuvre an independent stand and friendship with all nations in the new globalised world? For example, our closest neighbour and natural partner, India, is in a strategic partnership with the US which has grown beyond the Indo-Pacific following the 2016 designation of India as a “Major Defence Partner” among the US’s closest allies and partners.
As a measure of this realignment, India has joined the US, Japan and Australia in security cooperation in the Indian Ocean, known as the “Quad”and they lead a major initiative to build “rules of the road” ostensibly to maintain freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean but in reality to contain China’s expansion. The problem is that Sri Lanka and the Quad do not share the same threat perception vis a vis China’s presence in the Indian Ocean and the Chinese flagship project of BRI. Hence, Sri Lanka’s contribution to the Quad project has been limited to hosting conferences in support of political efforts by the Quad to build “rules of the road” which China is ignoring. Most recently ASEAN while supporting the initiative for “rules of the road” has chosen to work within an ASEAN perspective seemingly sidelining the Quad initiative.
Then there is India’s sensitivity over Chinese submarines visiting Sri Lanka unannounced. However, the research shows that it was not China but Japan which has made the largest number of port calls in Sri Lanka over the last year. Despite the constraints of its Constitution, the largest Japanese ships are being fitted with the latest US weapon technology for inter-operability with the US. In Sri Lanka, the Joint Opposition has recently voiced support for Australia as a reliable partner for Sri Lanka in defence cooperation. One wonders whether they have taken the full extent of Australia’s role as a lead partner in security cooperation with the US in the Indo-Pacific? Australia hosts US bases on its soil and is currently undertaking an unprecedented expansion in its navy budget centered around construction of 12 new superior submarines in France, one of the largest such orders placed in this century.
All of the new acquisitions are expected to be on an inter-operability basis with the US.
Security challenges
How does Sri Lanka respond to these new security challenges and can it protect its strategic autonomy? Former Foreign Secretary Palihakkara has suggested the need for an clear policy on port calls. This is urgent work and should be drafted with bi-partisan support to ensure policy sustainability. Some of the currently popular perspectives on military port visits to SL are somewhat misplaced ,the data for a decade show that the trend is neither Sino-centric nor US - centric. China is the third in the list of visitors and the US, the principal Major Maritime User (MMU) in the world, is the last! We have borrowed heavily and invested heavily in our ports which remain under- utilised. We need to base ourselves on a foreign policy of strategic prudence, maximise international cooperation including port calls while minimising strategic power rivalry traps.
Another option is what China has chosen, the path of building navy to navy cooperation. The recent Chinese Navy 70th anniversary celebrations were marked with grand style and counted the participation of some 20 foreign delegations including India which sent cordial greetings and its newest ship with a top level contingent. The US and Sri Lanka have built solid navy to navy cooperation since the armed conflict when they gave vital intelligence to help the Sri Lanka navy to hunt down the LTTE floating arsenals. Since then, there has been joint training in several areas including coast guard, joint exercises for humanitarian emergencies and the gift of equipment such as the recently commissioned gift of a refitted cutter . During the tsunami crisis, the US Navy with its heavy lifting equipment had rendered vital assistance prioritising the clearing of major roads along the coast.
However, all this quiet cooperation is now forgotten in the current public storm regarding US foreign intervention which has given rise to new levels of anti-American sentiment. The US, which had good understanding with the Wickremesinghe government will need to reach out to the Opposition also in order to pursue the sustainability of any bilateral security agreements and even the MCC is at risk.
Parliamentarians across the aisles are calling for the full content of all defence and security arrangements to be submitted to the House which is to be welcomed . Some believe that India, even as it pursues its own ambitions of a closer relationship with the US based on access to advanced military and nuclear technology, may not be averse to such caution by Sri Lanka over US initiatives.
Climate change challenges
Apart from the traditional security challenges, Sri Lanka also needs to factor in the new challenges of climate change which calls for new heritage based approaches in our foreign policy. The 2019 Long-Term Climate Risk Index, published by Germanwatch, Sri Lanka as the second most affected country in the world by impacts of weather-related loss events such as storms, floods, heat waves, etc., from data available from 1998 to 2017. To encourage tourism, foreign investment, development cooperation and trade, Sri Lanka needs to evolve a strong international image and can do so if it takes seriously the need to protect and conserve its heritage assets.
Sri Lanka is a signatory to most international conventions on environment and climate change which makes it an active player on the global scene, however, the question is whether these international commitments are being implemented on the ground. Upto now the Foreign Ministry has only come in when there is an international agreement to be signed leaving the domestic responsibility for implementation to the line ministry concerned. However, much more could be achieved if the Foreign Ministry should take the lead in becoming a catalyst, creating a forum for bringing together policy makers and domestic stake holders to encourage the timely implementation of our international environmental commitments including educating the populations at risk.
Port calls by military vessels – Statistics. [Source SL Navy.]
“Of the ‘warships’ that visited ports in Sri Lanka from 2009 to May 2018, it appears that 422 vessels arrived on operational, training and formal visits. These warships belong to 27 navies in the world. India being the neighbor and having close ties with Sri Lanka, tops the list with 83 visits and Japanese ships made 69 visits. China, is at a relatively distant third place with 33 visits followed by Bangladesh with 29 visits. Russia and Pakistan come next with 27 and 24 visits, respectively. The USA, despite being a major power in the Indian Ocean, had undertaken only 18 visits. (Sri Lanka Navy, 2018).”