A huge controversy has arisen over the proposed Local Government (LG) elections which are slated to be held in March 2023 under the normal course of events. But the incidents we have witnessed in the past year in this country do not qualify to be described as a “normal course of events”. The country faced an unprecedented economic crisis that stemmed primarily from the pandemic and the resultant foreign exchange losses and it is not yet out of the woods by any means.
The result of this massive crisis was a popular uprising which almost turned into a full-blown insurrection as extremist parties interjected themselves into the narrative. Yes, the Aragalaya, as it was called, began on a peaceful and non-partisan note but later turned nasty as these parties hijacked its theme and purpose. The upheaval resulted in the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in July and the election by Parliament of President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who shouldered the challenge when most others shirked away.
Since then, in spite of what the detractors say, President Wickremesinghe has managed to establish economic and social stability to some extent. The fuel queues are gone and so are the LP Gas queues. Inflation is marginally down, the rupee is stable, power cuts are down to around three hours and essentials are freely available, albeit at somewhat higher prices compared to 2019. In short, life has returned almost to normal levels.
This does not mean that we have seen the back of the economic crisis. Far from it. Our foreign reserves are still low, foreign debts still hover around the US$ 51 billion mark and International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance is yet to materialise. There is a shortage of drugs in hospitals, malnutrition is creeping upwards, unemployment figures have gone up and tourism is still not back to pre-pandemic levels.
Most economics experts agree that 2023 could be a year of recovery if the Government gets its fiscal priorities right. Still, it might take around 2-3 years to recover completely from this economic quagmire. Until then, they have warned against incurring any unnecessary additional expenditure, lest the economy is affected adversely. At this stage, it is vital to focus exclusively on economic recovery, instead of on vitriolic and divisive politics.
But this is exactly what will happen if the LG elections are held in March this year, taking attention away from vital matters of State. This is not a moment for political acrimony that will turn back the gains we have made so far on the socio-economic front. Having witnessed previous elections held in this country, we know how polarizing they can be. We can hardly afford such factionalism at this moment.
But the biggest argument against the holding of LG elections at this juncture is the sheer cost – Rs.10 billion or Rs.10,000 million, as estimated by the National Elections Commission (NEC). But this is just the official cost – election observers say that each candidate is likely to spend at least Rs.2 million on propaganda. If we imagine that 20,000 candidates vie for the 8,000 positions available in the Municipal Councils, Urban Councils and Pradeshiya Sabhas, they are going to waste a staggering Rs.40,000 million down the drain. All in all, the real cost of the election is going to be around Rs.50 billion, which simply cannot be justified at a time when many people are struggling for survival. And remember, once the LG bodies are established after the polls, it is the taxpayer who will have to foot the salary and expenses bill for 8,000 members.
Besides, an exercise is underway to redefine the boundaries of Municipal Wards and reduce the number of LG Members to 4,000. This alone will cut the LG salary bill in half. It is thus advisable to hold the LG election once this process is completed. Moreover, an LG poll in itself will not affect a change in the Presidency or the Government – the expense can at least be justified if that was the case. Therefore, there should be no indecent hurry on the part of any political party to seek LG elections right now. They can wait until the country achieves a measure of economic stability.
In fact, President Ranil Wickremesinghe has issued a dire warning that the country could again witness unrest if LG elections are held in March as monies allocated for welfare and the import of essentials will have to be diverted to the polls. This could again create massive queues and conditions for civil commotion. That is the last thing the country needs now.
Since General Elections are also due in around two years’ time, the Government and the NEC should explore the possibility of holding all national elections on a single day, as done in the USA and many other countries. This will save a huge amount of money spent on manpower and logistics for each separate LG, Provincial Council, General and Presidential poll.
The Constitution itself may have to be changed for this to happen. Since a new Constitution is anyway being drafted, it is worth examining this idea closely.
Make no mistake, elections are the bedrock of any democracy. But elections cannot be treated in isolation. They should take place only if the conditions are favourable for holding them. Citizens who are struggling with their day-to-day lives will be in no mood to go out and vote with a clear frame of mind. This will skew the result of any election held now and not reflect the actual will of the people. This is clearly one occasion when it is better to be late rather than be sorry.