President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on Friday announced an islandwide lockdown for around 10 days, a move that was widely anticipated following strong appeals from religious leaders, the medical fraternity and many civic organisations.
This could be extended depending on the latest developments in terms of case numbers and deaths.
President Rajapaksa’s initial reluctance to impose a lockdown was understandable, as all sectors of the economy are adversely affected when the country is closed.
His main concern was about the plight of the eight million or so daily wage earners who will lose their livelihoods almost overnight whenever a lockdown is imposed.
The Government has since assured that these segments of society will be looked after, as it was indeed done on previous occasions.
Moreover, all essential services including the delivery of essential foodstuffs and other goods will continue unhindered. Mobile vendors will be permitted to operate as was done earlier. The idea is to cause the minimum disruption to the day-to-day life of the people as the lockdown takes effect.
Imposing a lockdown is never an easy decision for any country, even a developed one. New Zealand recently imposed a lockdown when some cases were discovered there and the authorities expressed regret about the inconvenience caused to the public.
Lockdowns are especially harsh for developing countries such as Sri Lanka, which is reeling from the adverse effects of the pandemic including a foreign exchange crisis, loss of tourism and remittance income, loss of jobs and livelihoods, a strained health system and a general downturn of the economy.
Conversely, the argument of medical professionals is also true. The people should survive first for the economy to function at least to some degree.
Nearly 7,000 deaths and 380,000 patients are huge numbers, given that the country’s population is only 22 million. Among these patients are those who are economically active.
Their absence from jobs and other economic ventures is a huge loss for the economy. Moreover, the phenomenon of Long Covid means that some recovered patients may suffer from various symptoms for nearly a year, minimising their contribution to the economy.
In addition to all these losses, the State has to bear a huge burden in terms of the costs for Covid treatments, purchase of medicine and equipment, PCR and Antigen Tests and import of vaccines.
This amount has been estimated at Rs.400 billion so far. This is a huge amount that we can ill afford, and which could have gone for development and social welfare at any other time.
But at the rate that infected numbers were reported, there was a danger of a massive tidal wave of infections that would have overwhelmed our hospitals and Intermediate Treatment Centres.
Since public cooperation with regard to the existing health regulations and restrictions was also minimal, a total lockdown that minimises public movements and gatherings was the only available option. This is an option aimed at saving lives in the short and medium term.
However, unlike the previous round of so-called ‘travel restrictions’, this quarantine curfew should be very strictly enforced.
The ‘travel restriction’ was a shambolic affair, with nearly 80,000 vehicles entering Colombo alone on any given day. Most stores were also open on the sly. This may actually have contributed to an increase in Covid case numbers instead of lowering them.
In the light of this experience, President Rajapaksa has instructed the IGP to implement the law strictly against violators of the quarantine curfew this time around. Moreover, no mercy should be shown to violators of other health guidelines – for example, those not wearing face masks.
While the most obvious aim of the quarantine curfew is to keep people indoors and limit their movements, there is another stated aim.
There are still more than 300,000 people aged 60 and over who have evaded Covid vaccination so far.
Given that most of the Covid deaths reported during the past few weeks were of unvaccinated individuals aged over 60, it is imperative that all those over 60 who have still not had the shot are found and given it.
The quarantine curfew will make it easier for the Police and health services to track down such individuals with the help of Grama Sevakas and Divisional Secretariats during the next 10 days. This tallies with the September 1 deadline for vaccinating the whole eligible population aged 30 and over.
If, among them there are persons who cannot go to a vaccination centre due to mobility, old age or disability issues, arrangements can and should be made for in-situ vaccination, as is already being done in the Western Province with the intervention of the Army.
Once this lacuna is addressed by September 1, the Government can move into the next phase of vaccination – those aged 18-30.
Vaccination and the ensuing herd immunity is the only way of this pandemic.
Lockdowns can help to a great extent to minimise the community spread, but they cannot be imposed for months on end. In any case, lockdowns are not a long-term measure. The only hope lies in vaccinating ideally the entire population, failing which everyone above 12 must be vaccinated (no country is so far vaccinating anyone below 12).
Judging by the rapid progress of the islandwide vaccination drive, this should be possible by mid-next year.
The Government is also mulling booster shots for health workers, which can be extended to the general population should the need arise. Hence all should cooperate to make the inoculation drive a success in order to return to normality as soon as possible.